All the voter preference survey show that Rodrigo Duterte enjoys a comfortable lead over all the other presidential candidates. The most recent Pulse Asia survey gives the Davao mayor a 35% share of the vote, a full 12% over second-running Grace Poe.
In actual votes, Poe is trailing Duterte by over 5 million votes. That is awesome lead, considering we are only a little more than a week before elections.
Most analysts are about ready to concede the presidential contest to Duterte — even as the survey leader is feared by big businessmen. Duterte is a political outsider, much like former president Joseph Estrada. He is feared by the big businessmen because he is not under the spell, much less under the control, of the oligarchs.
The oligarchs are scrambling to stop Duterte. They are financing several parallel black propaganda efforts to try and prevent the tough-talking mayor from becoming president. At the moment, it does not seem possible to make their rpeferred presidential candidate Mar Roxas win. Roxas is too deep in the rankings to make any effort to cheat the elections and install him truly impracticable.
Should they fail to stop Duterte, the second option of the oligarchs is to make a “friendly” vice-presidential candidate win in the elections. They preference is obviously for LP vice-presidential candidate Leni Robredo. They think they can make her win, given the smaller margin between her and survey leader Bongbong Marcos. In the closing day, we are likely to see minions of the oligarchy ganging up on Marcos in a manner more severe than the attacks mounted against Duterte.
The thinking, among the oligarchic circles, is that it might be easier to dislodge Duterte (as the elitists did with Joseph Estrada) if the second-in-line is Robredo. The LP vie-presidential candidate (like her standard-bearer) is seen to be “friendlier” to big business.
Therefore, in the distant possibility that Robredo overtakes Marcos and wins the vice-presidential elections, this will be a formula for political instability down the road. Unable to get their way with Duterte, the oligarchs could “neutralize’ the Davao mayor either by fomenting political instability or moving outright at impeaching the new president. This possibility will produce yet another period of political turmoil for the country. The oligarchs do not care is political instability makes life difficult for the poor, as long as they maintain their hold over the nation’s economy.
A conspiracy to create instability and make things difficult for a Duterte presidency will be less likely if Bongbong Marcos wins the vice-presidency. Like Duterte, Marcos is independent of the oligarchs. It will make little sense for the oligarchic gangs to conspire against a Duterte presidency if the successor is Marcos. Therefore a Marcos vice-presidency will be helpful in consolidating a Duterte presidency. By dissuading the oligarchs from moving against the duly-elected president, a Marcos victory will help ensure that reforms are undertaken in a more stable political environment.