ALVAREZ, JUBAHIB NECK-TO-NECK IN DAVAO DEL NORTE PRE-POLL SURVEY
In Davao del Norte, reelectionist First District Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez and his candidate for Governor are in a stiff fight in the race to the bottom of pre-poll surveys for the coming May election.
Alvarez, his political stock downed by his ouster in July as Speaker of the House of Representatives and battered by allegations of corruption, was a few points away from Zero in the survey conducted by Pulso Dabaw. Gubernatorial bet Edwin Jubahib, a virtual unknown and candidate of Alvarez’s “Alvarez Wing” competed with Alvarez in the neck-to-neck race to the bottom of the survey, the first by the Davao Region-based pollster in relation to the 2019 mid-term election. The survey was conducted during the period January 8-14, 2019 involving 1,200 repondents. Three Pulso Dabaw five-member teams separately generated results of the survey in face-to-face encounters with respondents of voting age in the province (500 respondents), First Congressional District (350 repondents) and Second Congressional District (350 respondents). The respondents were asked the question: IF THE 2019 MID-TERM ELECTION IS HELD TODAY WHO WILL YOU VOTE FOR AS…(GOVERNOR/CONGRESSMAN)? In the race for Governor, Rodney del Rosario was picked by 284 repondents or 81 percent against Jubahib’s 59 or 17%. 2% or seven of the respondents were undecided. In the First District race, Anthony del Rosario clobbered Alvarez with a high 255 respondents (73%) against the former Speaker who got the nod of a measly 77 or 22%. The undecided numbered 18 repondents (5%). Rep. Antonio Floirendo Jr. in the Second District survey, was picked by 322 respondents (92%) with Dujali netting an extremely low 21 (6%), with 7 (2%) in the Undecided bracket. Rodney del Rosario, a sitting member of the Provincial Board, and younger brother, incumbent Governor Anthony del Rosario are cousins of Floirendo.
The Del Rosarios and Floirendo are running under the banner of the Hugpong Ng Pagbabago (HNP), a regional party organized by presidential daughter Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio. Alvarez, Jubahib and Dujali carry the banner of the Alvarez Wing, a local bloc aligned with the PDP/Laban, of which Alvarez is the secretary general. Jovita Salvador, Pulso Dabaw chief executive officer, said the survey is uncommissioned. Salvador said it would release soon results of survey conducted during the period January 15-28, which shall include a poll on voters’ preference in the cities of Igacos (Island Garden City of Samal), Tagum and Panabo. She explained that its first surveys zeroed in on Davao del Norte as it is the only province in the Davao Region where the coming election is “most politically pronounced.” Salvador said that while there is also a “hot contest’ in the race for Governor in Davao del Sur, candidates for top positions in other provinces (Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental and Davao Occidental) are either reelectionist incumbents backed by Mayor Duterte-Carpio’s HNP or are facing only token opposition.
Senator Bongbong Marcos is the leading choice of Filipino voters, according to a vice presidential preference poll completed within a week prior to the May 9 general elections. The last pre-election surveys were conducted by the two most reliable pollsters in the country, Social Weather Stations (SWS) and the Standard’s Laylo Report.
In the latest SWS poll done between May 1 to 3, Marcos regained the lead with 29% out of 4,500 survey respondents nationwide. He was followed by lone female candidate, Rep. Leni Robredo of Camarines Sur, who garnered 28%. Four other candidates are also running for the second highest post in the land, but their chances are virtually nil.
Marcos’ ranking jumped four points compared to his performance in the immediately preceding SWS polls taken on April 18 to 20. On the other hand, Robredo inched up two percentage points over the same period. Both candidates now have double-digit leads versus their other rivals.
Meanwhile, the Laylo Report published by national broadsheet The Standard revealed similar results. Marcos garnered 30% of 3,000 likely voters who were polled between April 27 and May 1. Close behind was Robredo at 29%, and a far third was Senator Chiz Escudero at 20%. The three other candidates had a combined 18%.
The Philippine Star columnist Babe Romualdez considers the Laylo Research Strategies (LRS) firm as the most credible polling organization in the country. It was founded by Pedro Laylo Jr. in 2001 after he retired from SWS. Laylo obtained his master’s degree in political science from the University of Connecticut’s Roper Center with a concentration in public opinion research.
Romualdez said billionaire businessman Enrique Razon Jr. “has been relying on the Laylo surveys even when he was still the owner of The Standard (then known as Manila Standard Today) to assess the political landscape and gauge voters’ choices.” According to Romualdez, the shipping tycoon regularly commissions LRS to conduct surveys because its methodology is the most detailed and comprehensive with the biggest sample size representing all 18 regions of the Philippines.
The camp of presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte has warned the public of yet another fake survey that will show administration bet Mar Roxas ahead of the other presidential candidates.
The spurious survey is designed to condition the minds of the Filipino people that Mar Roxas is the real frontrunner and will most likely win the presidential race, according to Leoncio Evasco Jr, the national campaign manager of Duterte.
The fake survey will be reportedly released on May 7 or two days before election day, said Evasco.
“The survey is both grossly questionable and downright illegal,” Evasco said in a statement Thursday. “The Commission on Elections prohibits the release of survey results three days before the election. Obviously, this survey is designed to condition the minds of the Filipino people that Mar Roxas is the real frontrunner.”
Over the weekend, an obviously manipulated survey conducted by an unknown agency called D’Strafford placed Roxas on top of the presidential race.
Evasco warned that the fake surveys will be used as anchors for the cheating mechanism of the administration.
“These are prelude to cheating and are all part of a system of election fraud laid down by the administration,” said Evasco. “We have warned the public already, and we are again warning the Filipino people of possible massive cheating in the elections on Monday. The administration will be relentless in its attempts to subvert the will of the Filipino people.”
“The people must foil the evil plan of the administration,” he added.
“We should not belittle the desperation of Roxas, Aquino, and the yellow ilk because they are in power and in control of the resources, including funds,” Evasco said.
It is only the people who can stop this, Evasco said.
“They may have the money and the machinery, but we have each other and the collective desire for real change,” he said.
We welcome the endorsement of the Iglesia ni Cristo INC). This is a big boost to our campaign particularly to thwart attempts by the administration to cheat the elections.
The LP is claiming to be in a momentum, an empty boast but clearly laying the premises and conditioning the minds of our people on the grand fraud they plan to unleash with unbelievable results on election day.
This endorsement shows that Duterte’s advocacy for #TunayNaPagbabago has resonated to almost all our people and all our church formations affected by the rising crimes and drugs, continuing corruption and government neglect, poverty and sufferings of our people.
These issues are close to the hearts of our moral leaders and the various churches have their own campaigns to end this malady.
Hence, we have received various expressions of support from many religious groups and religious leaders not just from the INC. But fully aware of its church discipline in voting, this INC endorsement is truly significant.
We thank the INC as well all other religious groups and religious leaders.
In fact, we are very grateful that no less than the Pope himself has written to Duterte and saying his own prayers. Peter Lavina, Head of Media Group
DURIAN POST BUSINESS & NEWS DIRECTORY 